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06/28/09
Industry exec foresees delayed recovery in commercial market
Filed under: General, Real Estate
Posted by: Lillian Wong @ 5:18 pm

Taking a cue from Ernest Hemingway, Cushman & Wakefield executive Chris Toci titled a recent presentation “The Sun Also Rises.”

Speaking last week to the Desert Mountain Chapter of CoreNet Global, a trade association for commercial real estate professionals, Toci said there is reason for hope in the current marketplace. The sun still shines brightly in Phoenix, he said, and the climate and lifestyle always will be an asset on anybody’s balance sheet.

In fact, the metro area managed to attract an estimated 97,000 new residents in 2008, if numbers from the Arizona Department of Commerce are to be believed. More people means more absorption of housing, which is the top essential for recovery in other sectors, he said.

Still, Toci is not jumping on the bandwagon with some prognosticators who are declaring the Valley’s housing market already has bottomed and is curving heavenward.

About $800 billion in adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to reset at higher interest rates through 2011. Even though the ARMs are not subprime, they could be vulnerable to default. The bottom may sink further in the months to come. All of this could delay recovery in the commercial real estate market.

There’s even more sobering data to consider, Toci said:

• By the end of 2009, the Phoenix metro area will have lost about 200,000 jobs. Toci believes job losses are tapering off, and that the metro area will post an increase of between 10,000 and 20,000 jobs in 2010.

• Vacant office space has been growing for the past two years. Now, several huge office projects are under construction. By Toci’s estimate, it will take between five and six years to absorb available office space.

“We just have a propensity to overbuild,” he said.

For more: www.corenetdesertmnt.org.

New brokerage opens

With the economy in a difficult way, it probably wouldn’t seem like an opportune time to start a commercial real estate firm — but don’t tell that to Patti Gentry and Gee Gee Entz. The two former Coldwell Banker Commercial brokers opened a firm in mid-June called Arizona Commercial Advisors at 7001 N. Scottsdale Road in Scottsdale.

In a news release, ACA is described as “a unique boutique firm specializing in the office market, including tenant lease representation, office building acquisition or disposition and client build-to-suits.” Clients include such recognizable names as Ryan Cos., St. Joseph’s Hospital and Medical Center, ING Pilgrim, Sun Chase Holdings and Vestar Development Co.

Gentry and Entz have been friends for many years, dating back to the start of their careers as sales representatives for IBM Corp. They were partners at Coldwell Banker Commercial from 2003 to 2008.

Both are involved in various charitable causes and volunteer work, including the American Heart Association’s Heart Ball, Arizona Kidney Foundation, Heard Museum, Barrow Neurological Foundation, Phoenix Art Museum and Arizona State University Sun Angel Foundation.

For more: 602-799-3500 or 602-469-0234.

Apartment complex purchased

Multifamily sales transactions have slowed to a crawl. According to real estate data firm CoStar, only three transactions involving larger apartment complexes were completed in the Valley during the first quarter of 2009.

One recent deal of note, according to Hendricks & Partners, is the sale of Villagio, a 472-unit complex at 1133 W. Baseline Road in Tempe.

The buyer, Stonecraft Homes Inc. of Los Angeles, paid $20.3 million for the property. The sellers were Villagio CAT LLC, a Delaware corporation, and Capmark VII-CRE Ltd., a San Francisco company. The lead brokers were Mark Forrester and Art Wadlund, both of Hendricks & Partners.

For more: www.hendrickspartners.com.

Industrial buildings refinanced

Few banks are lending, but Minneapolis-based NorthMarq Capital has provided funding on a few smaller deals in the Valley.

Phoenix Business Journal - by Jan Buchholz Friday, June 26, 2009



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